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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted -  15/12/2007  :  07:03
I thought it might be a good thing to have a topic devoted to this important subject.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk
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Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 23/12/2009 : 11:47
My reason for posting in this discussion is to try to clarify some of the issues. I don't have any vested interest in the climate change debate other than wanting sound evidence to be made available to all and to avoid people (and other living things) suffering from the potential consequences that will come about through excessive warming of the earth' surface.

I'm not making any money, fame or whatever out of climate change. My work has nothing to do with climate change. If anything, you might think that I would be a climate sceptic - after all, I'm a sceptic  by nature, and I've worked in big industry for a large part of my career, even done some work with BP Exploration in the past. I like having a car to drive around in, I don't want to have to pay more in taxes, I want to keep my house warm in winter and cool in summer etc. I'm not an environmental activist, just a bloke in his 60s who has some science background and has taken an amateur interest in the climate debate since it began. I was intrigued by the debate but wanted to make up my own mind so I read books, searched the Web, and listened to the radio and TV to learn as much as possible. I'm always sceptical until I see good evidence for claims on any subject. On the climate debate I see large amounts of good evidence in support of the contention that the earth's surface is warming, that it is caused by human activity, and that it will be dangerous to human life if we do not take action now. I see little sound evidence that this view is wrong, but a lot of claims put forward as evidence but which are either not relevant or not sound. I am quite happy to discuss the matter with people who disagree and to point out why I support an issue when they do not. I don't want to force my opinions on anyone but instead to give them the evidence that has influenced my thinking and leave them to make up their own minds.

Climate change is a subject that we are all going to have to learn more about because if we do not make our own decisions carefully and early then events will be forced on us by outside factors, especially countries like China and the USA. It isn't just British scientists who are worried by climate change, it is scientists in countries worldwide, particularly in countries that are currently experiencing more extreme weather events than we have in the UK. China might have been a stumbling block in Copenhagen but it is already ahead of us in some projects to tackle the effects of climate change on its infrastructure. In China it's not an argument about whether climate change is happening but about what to do to counter the effects they already experience. In Northern China the permafrost layer under the ground's surface is melting for the first time in recorded history. Railways, roads and buildings are collapsing as the permafrost melts and they have had to start a massive project to strengthen all structures sitting on such ground. In southern China the glaciers are melting and the Yellow River, Yangtze River and others fed by these glaciers are going to cause terrible flooding across thousands of square miles in winter and drought in summer that will make it impossible to grow crops. No matter what your views on the causes of global climate change, the evidence is there for all to see. It is happening.


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AiredalePete
New Member


29 Posts
Posted - 24/12/2009 : 03:23
Doing good things about pollution is good even if the reasons for doing it are wrong. Not doing something good because there is the least doubt about the science is bad policy. Reducing emissions is good. That's my last word on that thread. - Stanley

I agree with you Stanley.

I am a big believer in responsible stewardship of the planet.  I take pains to reduce fuel consumption both at home, at work and on the road.  I do not visit overseas countries - ever. I recycle waste wherever it is humanly possible to do so.  In that regard we have common ground.

However,  I have learnt, through reading articles and watching TV reports, two things: 

* that the current increase in temperature of the earth is NOT caused by carbon dioxide, a gas which satellite data have demonstrated is more or less equally disippated throughout the troposphere and is therefore NOT adding anything the 'ozone layer', and that therefore

* human production of carbon dioxide by industrial means, which is in any case a tiny fraction of all the carbon dioxide produced naturally, has nothing at all to do with it.

I know the earth is heating up.  It is heating up as it has heated up many times before and it will begin to cool again as it has cooled many times before. And each time it heats up it will heat up slightly less - because there is an overall downward trend - and each time it cools down it will cool down slightly more for the same reason.

Now if you want to join the ranks of the 'apocalyptists' and predict doom and gloom, go ahead.  I may join you if I ever see the faintest hint of evidence suggesting that you are correct.  In the meantime I believe very strongly that the popular fashion of preaching doom and gloom is being seized upon by a morally corrupt government and used as an excuse to levy higher taxes, which in my opinion is very unfair.


Insanity doesn't run in my family.

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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 24/12/2009 : 07:04
There will be climate change in Barlick today, the weather is due to warm up a bit. Gott sei dank. (Mind you I could be wrong)


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Bruff
Regular Member


479 Posts
Posted - 06/01/2010 : 09:26
Mad headline and article in the Daily Express this morning - snow and ice chaos at the moment as evidence for global warming being a 'sham'.

 
I know standards have slipped across the board in this country, but you'd expect a national newspaper to employ journalists who understand the difference between the weather and the climate.

 
Just to note, Northern Canada and Alaska are experiencing one of the warmest winters for many a year with temperatures 5 - 10 degrees above the norm.

 
Here it's January, winter, and guess what?  It can snow and get cold. The fact that this is the worst we've had for 30 years should be taken as unusual, though not wholly unexpected, weather within a prevailing temperate winter climate.

 
It is no more evidence against global warming than unusual, though not unexpected, coolish weather within a prevailing temperate summer climate.

 
Richard Broughton



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Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 06/01/2010 : 10:08
The difference between weather and climate was described concisely on Radio 4 this morning: climate describes the average conditions or trends over a period of time whereas weather is the noise in the system. We are experiencing a noise spike at the moment. David King pointed out that we do not have evidence to allow us to attribute the increasingly frequent extremes of weather to global warming, but we can expect that such extremes will cause more damage when they are superimposed upon the increasing global surface temperature and the disruption it causes to the oceans and atmosphere.


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 07/01/2010 : 06:35
I agree with both of you. I can only assume that reasonably intelligent journalists who write crap like this are driven by the old adage, 'Never let the truth get in the way of a good story'.

There is no incompatability between the fact of global warming and the sever winter weather being experienced here and in places as far away as China. What they are not mentioning is that Southern Europe and Australia are experiencing higher temperatures than usual. The cause of all these anomalies is the same, turbulence and variations in the jet streams, the winds that circle the globe at high altitude and affect lower level weather systems. In the UK case the unusual high pressure sytem persisting over us and Northern Europe has forced the jet stream south and enabled the northern and eastern weather systems to gain ascendance and flood us with cold air and snow. 

If you remember.... I was going on about the jet stream six months ago and wondering what would happen if the shift occurred again in winter. One is allowed to be right before the event. This is exactly what has happened and we will see no improvement until the jet stream moves north and allows the Atlantic weather systems to bring us warmer air. For this to happen we have to see the barometer drop severely and there is every chance this will take a couple of months. We haven't seen the end of this weather system yet.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 07/01/2010 : 12:38
Although we cannot say for certain whether or not the extreme weather patterns are linked to climate change it would be surprising if they weren't. When a system goes from one stable state to another it's not unusual for it to have a fit of the wobbles - a bit like climbing into a canoe.

The ocean and atmosphere are closely linked and for some purposes can be considered as one fluid layer on the surface of the earth. For instance, the atmosphere, like the ocean, is pulled by the moon's gravity. They both have currents/winds created partly by the earth's rotation (Coriolis effect) and the ocean and atmosphere interact, e.g. the wind affecting ocean currents. The ocean also has a thermohaline circulation, often known as the ocean conveyor, caused by cooling of water at the poles and warming in the tropics. At the poles, water is cooled and increases in salt concentration both of which make it denser. It then flows deep down in the ocean until it warms and wells up in the warmer seas. This movement in the ocean is much slower than the surface currents and a mass of water takes centuries to move around the globe.

This circulation will vary seasonally as ice melts and re-forms at the poles but if increasing amounts of polar ice melt permanently and release more cold freshwater the ocean conveyor may become unstable. All conjecture but worth considering.


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 16/05/2010 : 09:07
I see we are in for another visitation of ash from Eyjafjallajokull over the next few days. Thinking about the unseasonable cold weather I wondered whether there was any connection between the ash cloud and the lower temperatures. We know it has happened before, I am sure that it must have some screening effect but how much?


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 15/06/2010 : 06:08
The jat stream is again dominating our weather like last summer. We shan't get rid of these unusual weather patterns until it shifts south.

Got a long PM this morning from someone who has his own theory about climate change but hasn't posted so I ignored it, if he can't take the trouble to post what's the point? Basically he says it's a conspiracy theory worked up by the water companies. Ah yes......


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 15/06/2010 : 10:41
I've just criticised the water companies in the Science thread on a different matter but I wouldn't accuse them of a climate change conspiracy theory!


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 15/06/2010 : 17:01
We'll be able to assess his theory if he posts..... I know that deleting his PM was a bit drastic but I don't see the point of off-topic conversations when the whole point of the site is open discussion. It saves so much time....


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 15/06/2010 : 17:04
PS. Tiz, did you see the programme on foul water discgarges from storm drains about a week agao? Private Eye did a piece a few weeks ago and said that the lax regulations on these storm water discharges was a sweetener given to the water companies for some reason and in effect means that until a future date they don't need to woryy about them and in many cases don't keep logs of discharges.


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 15/06/2010 : 20:29
Yes, the one that's been in the news for some time now and has been brought to the public's notice by surfers is at the lovely beach near Hayle, Cornwall. I saw the boss of the water company being interviewed and he simply said it wasn't true - but the TV people had filmed it overflowing. He just stone-walled them. It amazes me how they get away with it.


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 16/06/2010 : 04:46
They learned to obfuscate from the politicians. It's an art form now, I'll bet it's part of a communications degree.


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 22/10/2010 : 10:51
quote:
Tizer wrote:
Yes, the one that's been in the news for some time now and has been brought to the public's notice by surfers is at the lovely beach near Hayle, Cornwall. I saw the boss of the water company being interviewed and he simply said it wasn't true - but the TV people had filmed it overflowing. He just stone-walled them. It amazes me how they get away with it.

I seem to be replying to myself here but I wanted to refer back to my post of June 2010. It referred to a TV programme which showed what had happened 2 years ago. Here's an update. The boss of the water company was eventually forced to admit the problem, the company put it right and he said "It will never happen again" (exactly those words). Guess what. I've just been to Hayle again and the local newspaper is full of it. The river is full of the brown stuff and it's pouring out onto a beautiful beach alongside a reserve and only hundreds of yards from an area owned by the National Trust and where you can park your car on the cliffs, look over and watch seals (we counted about 25 that day).

The problem arises because the company has put in a reed bed to purify the effluent from a local village near the beach, but the bed has failed. What they can't seem to get through their heads is that reed beds are not plastic filters, they are living organisms, a combination of plants and microorganisms in a very sensitive ecological balance. Such a system is easily poisoned by chemicals or even simply a heavier input than normal of organic rich material. They will fail now and then, so you have to have a back-up for whn it occurs. But of course the companies don't want the cost of the back-up so they skimp on it. They never learn, or won't learn.

Back to climate and weather. The Bewick swans have arrived from Siberia back at their wintering grounds at Slimbridge on the Severn estuary two weeks early this year. Folklore says that means a bitterly cold winter. Some weather forecasters are predicting a cold winter but not as cold as last year's which was the coldest for 31years. Now here is the most interesting bit. Last year's cold winter was caused by easterly winds and the extent of these winds was as great or greater than in the winter of 1962/63 yet last year's winter was nowhere near as bad as 62/63. The reason is that the climate has warmed and that easterly wind is not as cold as it used to be.Hurray, a benefit from climate change. But hang on, the same argument applied to the heatwaves and droughts, they are getting worse to for the same reason and we saw the effecst when thousands more people died in a heat wave than would have done in the past. Swings and roundabouts.


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