Click here to register on OneGuyFromBarlick|2|1
Go to Page
  First Page  Previous Page    25  26  27  [28]  29  30   Next Page  Last Page
Author Previous Topic Topic Next Topic  
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted -  28/04/2011  :  07:37
Political comment is a high risk activity on the site these days so I thought I'd try again to give those who are interested in politics a safe haven!


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk
Replies
Author
Go to Page
  First Page  Previous Page    25  26  27  [28]  29  30   Next Page  Last Page
 
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 05:32
Inflation up again and bad employment figures expected. All the indices are going the wrong way. Will we here yet again from Ossie that all is stable and going well?  The big problem is of course that our options are limited even if there was serious political will to invest in growth. It's significant that the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England has now become unanimous in leaving the interest rate where it is. The classic defence against inflation is to raise the bank interest rate but in the state we are in this is no longer an option. Interestingly there are kites being flown favouring even more 'Quantitive Easing', printing more money for circulation. In effect this is slow motion devaluation and eventually we all have to pay for it but at the moment it is the only economic tool left in the box. They have to take the option and I predict we will soon hear an announcement saying that this is going to happen. It will be portrayed by Ossie as a positive step but in truth is desperation economics. That is a measure of the state we are in.

Meanwhile, Labour's poll rating overtakes the coalition. It's a long time to an election but many Tories will be doing their sums and  this is going to do mothing for internal harmony either in the Tories ar the LibDems. Add to this the clear message that is coming from the markets and the US that the present round of insecurity in the global economy is more a product of inept political policies and lack of political will than an economic problem. It has got so bad in Europe that Angela Merkel has to slap down her own economics minister who more or less admitted that Greece was a lost cause.The next thing to watch on that front is Italy and the other Mediterranean countries. Once the Greek position becomes clear, they will be targeted by the markets.What a mess.....

China gives a dusty response to Greek request for them to support their economy by saying that the Chinese economy will continue to use profits of their glorious decade to invest in growth in the West. They could make a better contribution by allowing the Chinese Yen to rise to its proper level. Their policy at the moment is old-fashioned economic imperialism. Just what we did to them in the past!

Much activity in Euro zone today, video conferencing etc. Problem is that the political problems involved in supporting Greece are beyond the present structure of the EU and Greece will default. Crunch is October and process will take about two years. Big fear in France and Germany is the impact on their banks who are heavily invested in Greece. It will affect our banks as well, they are estimated to hold £13billion of Greek debt.

Add this to our domestic stagnation and things are looking black. Batten the hatches down Lads!


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 09:13
"China gives a dusty response to Greek request for them to support their economy by saying that the Chinese economy will continue to use profits of their glorious decade to invest in growth in the West."

While giving a dusty response to Greece they have been talking to the Italians about buying their assets. I wonder what the Chinese make of Berlusconi?


Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 10:43
From the IFS report on taxation:

It is not clear whether the 50% rate will raise any revenue at all. There are numerous ways in which people might reduce their taxable incomes in response to higher tax rates; at some point, increasing tax rates starts to cost money instead of raising it. The question is, where is that point? Brewer, Saez, and Shephard (2010) addressed precisely this question for the highest-income 1%. Their central estimate is that the taxable income elasticity for this group is 0.46, which implies a revenue-maximizing tax rate on earned income of 56%.29 This in turn (accounting for NICs and indirect taxes) corresponds to an income tax rate of 40%. So, according to these estimates, the introduction of the 50% rate would actually reduce revenue.

We do not know with confidence what the revenue-maximizing top tax rate is. But governments do not have the luxury of stopping there: policy must be decided, so, in the absence of compelling evidence, they must take a best guess. The Treasury’s best guess is that the 50% rate will raise some revenue. That is certainly not impossible, but it is certainly uncertain.

Whatever the precise revenue-maximizing tax rate, it seems unlikely that much additional revenue can be raised simply by increasing the income tax rate for the very highest earners. But it is important to realize that this is not the only tool available for extracting money from this group. Widening the income tax base—removing reliefs and clamping down on avoidance—not only raises money directly but also reduces the scope for shifting income into tax-free forms and thereby makes tax rate increases more effective revenue-raisers. And there are, of course, other taxes aimed at the wealthy (notably inheritance tax), which might have the potential to raise revenue.

In addition, we should not forget that the revenue-maximizing rate is itself not necessarily the rate that we should impose on this group. If we value their welfare at all, or have concerns over long-term behavioural effects, then we might want a rate below the revenue-maximizing rate in any case.’'



Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 10:50
The three banks in the UK that went under were Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley and HBOS.

There were others that were absorbed and RBS of course who was too big to fail but bought the Dutch bank without proper due diligence

None were involved in casino type banking, but just ordinary fractional banking

The problem came when the bubble burst they did not have enough liquidity to meet the sudden demand for repayment of funds that they had lent out.

Much of RBS and HBOS exposure is in the Irish market where they sit on surrendered assets, Santander has a rather large issue in Spain.

None of this bubble will be addressed by the new banking regulations being put forward, nor will expecting banks to increase their capital base remove the prospect of a similar thing happening again.

I note with some irony that the real reason for the bubbles, the lax regulation and monetary restriction, has so far not been addressed. It is the banks that are telling us that money isn't cheap, not our governments.


Go to Top of Page
panbiker
Senior Member


2300 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 13:28
I will post re the propsed boundary changes here rather than in the quotes thread.

You can see the proposals here on the Lacashire Telegraph site.

The thumbnail maps will open into PDF documents if you click on them. You can then zoom to see the detail.

For us the proposal is to merge Barlick and Earby into Ribble Valley.

There will be a new Burnley North Constituency that will encompass Nelson, Colne and Foulridge. In fact the boundary of this and the new extended Ribble Valley (inc West Craven) follows the line of the old pre 1974 boundaries at County Brook.

Lots of argument about this to follow, no doubt.

 


Ian Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 14/09/2011 : 14:03
As I stated elsewhere, I had hoped for Barlick to return to a North Yorks consituency, but hope that it may yet herald the end of the Pendle Borough Council. All jobs simply being reabsorbed across into a greater Burnley council and Ribble Valley.

Maybe then the money will not be syphoned off to spend in Nelson on more white elephants.


Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 15/09/2011 : 05:46
Interesting Ian. It's a reversion to what was the norm around 1900. Colne and Nelson were part of the Clitheroe constituency and it was a matter of shock and horror to the shire Tories of Clitheroe when they suddenly found in 1902  that they had no control over their MP and were returning a Labour man because the constituency had been altered and they now had Colne and Nelson as voters.

As for Skipton, from 1945 to 1979 we had that dreadful man Burnaby Drayson as MP and for 23 years I voted Labour and saw an MP re-elected who was about as useful as a chocolate teapot!

As for interfering with the present Pendle Borough Council, how anybody can imagine that transferring to a larger and more remote authority would not damage services is beyond me. On the whole Pendle do a good job. Any alteration should be to more localised bodies. I'd be very happy to see Pendle split and the old Colne Council reinstated.  Efficiency isn't gained by size but by efficient management backed by local knowledge.

Meanwhile Clegg gives a lecture at the LSE blaming the present UK economic situation on 'rapidly changing circumstances' . In other words, 'Not us Guv', now where have I heard that one before? The basic economic circumstances and the measures needed to combat them have not changed at all. The core of the problem is lack of political will to address the imbalances in the system caused by the 'financial experts' in the system acting from motives of greed and failing due to incompetence to even farm their advantage efficiently. From 1960 onwards power was ceded to these cretins with no thought further than the tax take and this is what we are paying for now.

Central control of the economy, infrastructure and industry with competent regulation was in place in the US and UK from 1939 onwards and proved efficient in financing a world war and the post war recovery. It was ditched for ideological reasons from 1960 onwards and we are now paying for the mistake. This central supervision is not 'Socialism' or 'Nationalisation' it is sensible control of the most venal instincts of big money. Look at the situation it has produced, a widening of the gap between rich and poor, obscene payouts to those with the power to set their own renuneration, a rail system described the other day as being a 'rich man's service', no control whatsoever over energy price manipulation. Local housing control abolished. Add your own examples. In contrast, look at the NHS where on the whole, medical treatment on whatever level is still free at the point of delivery. 

Then look at the make-up of the politicians who allowed this deterioration to happen. We have lost the intake of grass roots politicians, people who understood the conditions down on the shop floor and the street. I'll repeat my opinion that it is time we means-tested MP's wages and made a political career financially attractive to those without a personal fortune. We need a new intake of Bevans, Bevins and socially committed professionals like Atlee. Churchill and Macmillan recognised this need, Thatcher Blair and Cameron did not. Read the history and work it out for yourself.


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 15/09/2011 : 10:54
I thought we had the left the days of, "you can buy this but only that one and we can't guarantee the quality or delivery date"

It was during the years that you mention that Britain lost the majority of its competitiveness through failure to modernise and take up new market opportunities.

In many ways I'm reminded of the building of the matilda I tank as a specific example. Technically superior to anything else on the battlefield, except that it moved slower than infantry and was only armed with a machine gun. The German tanks couldn't knock them out but were able to simply drive around them with their Blitzkreig tactics. It did play a good role at Arras though and helped delay the deflation of the Dunkirk bubble.

It was the consumer who actually decided to buy anything that wasn't British.

I agree about the salaries, but if you buy even one share in the company you can ask a question at their shareholder meetings.

Taxation was made much more unfair by the Brown years as Chancellor. I understand that even he has his payments for speeches paid into an account where he will only pay 20% tax on the earnings. The disparity is the unfairness and even some of the papers seem to be suggesting that "tax avoidance is the new black".


Go to Top of Page
cloghopper
Regular Member


88 Posts
Posted - 15/09/2011 : 11:17
I'm sure the Chinese will think Belusconi is a man after their own heart. A hard working enterprising individual. He has money and doesn't need to fiddle or rob for more; unlike the majority of Italian politicians. He is badly and sadly misrepresented by the foreign media; as he struggles to drag Italy screaming by the scruff of its dinosaur neck into the twentieth (yes, twentieth) century.

cheers,

cloggy 


Dyslexics untie Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 16/09/2011 : 06:51
It would seem that the gravity of the economic situation is finally being recognised. The central banks (and this includes the Bof E) have promised to inject funding into banks struggling to survive the present crisis of confidence. This is directed solely at raising confidence, it addresses the symptoms but not the underlying faults. I flagged up the fact a while ago that inter-bank dollar loans, essential to maintaining short term liquidity, were drying up because the US lenders had lost confidence in the european financial model. This has now reached crisis point. It's important to realise that this is not a 2008 loss of confidence, it is the same mechanism but caused by the fundamental flaw in the EU ideal  which is that when under pressure, the Euro Zone hasn't got the political cohesion to force adherence to EU policy. In other words, they got the cart before the horse, they put the Euro in place before they had the federal structure with central control of financial policies. This is the basic flaw and pumping money into banks will not cure it.

The most serious aspect of this move by the banks is that it is the clearest message possible that they see collapse of the European financial system as not simply possible but probable. They have poked their finger into the hole in the dyke in the hope they can hold back the worst effects of the sovereign debt crisis for long enough to allow positive political action to be agreed and put in place. Here we arrive at the root cause, the politicians have and are failing. They have yet to come up with viable policies to address the structural problems. The bad news is that it is doubtful if there is enough time to do this.

Can't help thinking that Marx may have had it right when he argued that Capitalism contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, UBS cock up yet again. They depend on an impeccable reputation to attract investment from the wealthiest people and corporations in the world. This took a heavy blow in 2008 when they had to be bailed out because of micky mouse investments and dire risk management. The targetting of the 'rogue trader' is a diversion. The real question is why their risk management systems didn't pick this up before it escalated. Daughter Janet used to work in risk managemet in a large investment bank in London. Their job was to assess the effectiveness and consequences of algorithms used to direct investment before they were injected into the system. She tells me that  they were often ignored by managers who were only interested in what the short term profit would be and not the effects down the line. She also told me that these algorithms were very similar to a virus. Once injected into the trading system  they were almost impossible to remove. She told me 4 years ago that the only way to clean them out was to shut the system down, destroy the whole of the data and reboot with a new clean system. This of course is enormously expensive and was not seen as an option. So what would happen if a trader found one of the discredited algorithms still lurking in the system and used it?  Suppose this is what has happened and risk management either missed it or were ignored if they flagged up the danger? I doubt if we will ever know but the loss is almost certainly due to bad management and not 'fraud'. Bit like the 'lone hacker' in the Newscorp debacle, a useful ploy to divert attention but not the actual situation.


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 16/09/2011 : 11:05
I agree about the Eurozone model, but would point out that these suggests were flagged up at the very start. I'm sure that many people take no pleasure in the situation created by the political fudge of the leading socialist groups from Europe.

The fact that the situation is multi-factoral is simply indicative of the complexity of state finances, and the fact that some people would rather look the other way than ask the awkward questions.

A situation where US banks will no longer lend to eurozone banks is serious because of the quid pro quo, so the eurozone banks may take the opportunity later to not lend to the US institutions and we get into a much more destabilising global situation.

It is universally acknowledged, and Marx was not the first, that Capitalism has the seed for it's own downfall, and that is why markets are cyclical.

In a command economy there is restriction on innovation and profit re-investment and sometimes a driving to produce simply for the production because no one actually wants the finished goods. Eventually the cycle breaks because the people recognise the poor reputation that ensues, especially where they can see people outside their economies getting better products to consume.


Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 17/09/2011 : 06:27
Michael, read 'The Middle Way'.

I see that Chris Huhne has attacked energy customers for not switching suppliers to chase "Hundreds of pounds of savings". Really? So everyone could benefit?  Is this his solution to rising energy prices? It sounds to me like a convenient way of avoiding the inescapable fact that energy prices are bound to rise and that this is exacerbated by collusion between the companies and ineffective regulation of price policies. 

Cameron and Sarkozy sensibly avoid Bush-type triumphalism in Libya but they may be jumping the gun slightly. Heavy fighting continues and Gadafi is still at large.  Then there is the question of the aftermath. Lots of things still not clear. The one thing that is certain is that there are internal divisions in the rebel forces.

I don't know whether you have picked up the same thing but it seems to me that actions and comment on the EU crisis are becoming increasingly gloomy. I fear the US is convinced that EU political system is incapable of acting effectively in unison and that Greek default is now certain and the furure of the Euro very uncertain.  They have stated publicly that if the Euro fails, it will be a heavy blow for the global economy. I get the feeling that the situation is far worse than we are being told. Makes sense when you think about it, they are trying to give the impression that action is being taken in order to bolster confidence. Time will tell, October is still the deadline for Greece and as yet there is no clear, unified policy.


Stanley Challenger Graham




Barlick View
stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 17/09/2011 : 10:40
We have just endured 13 years of the 3rd way, and when the tide went out all those who didn't have the resources were exposed. The repurcussions are still being felt today, and the Greek Euro Crisis is just another piece of the meltdown of fractional bank practices and the massive losses incurred.


Go to Top of Page
Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 17/09/2011 : 10:46
On the local front, I see the "food" bins are to be "binned"

Hurrah

The costs, to my understanding have been clearly undertstated in the Telegraph article, as I understood the £100k was only the start up, not the ongoing costs, the vehicle, and the special crew etc.

Lots of politicing going on with Pendle shouting at LCC but I'm not aware of any funding promised by LCC. Distraction to avoid the blame probably

Recycle rates are very low (about 3%I think), so it was inevitable that it would be knocked on the head, even the Scrutiny Committee said as much back in April.

If Barlick wants the project to go forward, however, it probably needs to find someone with a local digester who would be willing to take it. I can only think of one possible agricultural practice that might be interested but probably wouldn't want the risk of contamination from household waste.


Go to Top of Page
Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 17/09/2011 : 10:55
Don't expect anything much from Chris Huhne. I wrote to him (proper letter, not an email message) pointing out major flaws in new regulation regarding energy and insulation in new houses (in many cases it will force people to install less efficient rather than more efficient equipment - whoever drafted the regulation seems not to understand the technology). There's trouble brewing just around the corner when this comes into full effect in 2016. But I heard nothing from him.


Go to Top of Page
Topic is 51 Pages Long:
Go to Page
  First Page  Previous Page    25  26  27  [28]  29  30   Next Page  Last Page
 


Set us as your default homepage Bookmark us Privacy   Copyright 2004-2011 www.oneguyfrombarlick.co.uk All Rights Reserved. Design by: Frost SkyPortal.net Go To Top Of Page

Page load time - 1.594