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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted -  28/04/2011  :  07:37
Political comment is a high risk activity on the site these days so I thought I'd try again to give those who are interested in politics a safe haven!


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk
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catgate
Senior Member


1764 Posts
Posted - 17/12/2011 : 13:51


quote:
Tizer wrote:
quote:
The 29% turnout is so low that we've got no idea what those people really want.
Repatriation ????



Every silver lining has a cloud.


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 18/12/2011 : 05:21
I'm not too sure of my facts here and to be honest I can't be bothered to go digging but my understanding is that, using the Royal Prerogative, Downing Street is the final arbiter in the appointment of bishops. He was speaking to the clergy and some commentators see it as an attempt to influence the CofE. Can't see it myself but it does raise the question of Disestablishment of the Church and I'd be all in favour of that!

I heard a very interesting report on Iran the other day from a man who is regarded as an expert on the Israeli Intelligence services. He was commenting on strange events in Iran, explosions in a steel works, assassination of a leading nuclear expert etc. He reckoned that a covert war against Iran has been going on for over five years and is escalating.  A cloud no bigger than a man's hand...   Last thing we need at the moment is another Middle East war!


Stanley Challenger Graham




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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 18/12/2011 : 07:07
See this LINK for Aidan Burley's gaffe.  I wonder what his position is on membership of the EU? I also wonder how stupid he can be, surely he realised the predelictions of his 'friends'? I wonder who blew the gaffe?


Stanley Challenger Graham




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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 19/12/2011 : 04:14
The politicians seem to have knocked off for the holiday. Unfortunately the ratings agencies haven't and the markets are expecting something nasty just before the holiday.....


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 19/12/2011 : 06:55
These dark mornings are a bummer for people like me who habitually rise early!  I have to find ways of passing the time until it's light enough to start the day. One of the consequences is that I sit here listening to the early morning news on R4 and it is dire!

I don't quite understand the mechanism but it would appear that we are part of emergency talks to inject more money into Europe to enable the EU to support the Mediterranean countries via the IMF. Problem is of course that these are seen by the markets as being a busted flush. There has been talk of the UK ring-fencing any money put into the IMF because the decision has been taken that defaults are no longer a probability but almost certain. The further problem is that it's doubtful whether the IMF would agree to this and we shall have to borrow thre money anyway!

This all looks like Mickey Mouse economics to me. It's the equivalent of throwing the money into a black hole and I am forced to wonder where the money will eventually go to. The answer is of course into the capital funds that hold the suspect bonds. Evidently our contribution will be the same size as France and only exceeded by Germany. So what does this mean? Do we refuse to contribute on the grounds of common sense? Would this be a trigger to others doing the same? Would this in turn trigger the markets and the ratings agencies? In other words, is this the crunch?

I am confused and I never thought I would say it but I feel sorry for the members of the Condem Coaltion who have to make a decision about this. It seems to me that they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Or have I got it all wrong? 


Stanley Challenger Graham




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belle
VIP Member


6502 Posts
Posted - 19/12/2011 : 09:45
Surely as we are a MUCH smaller country than either Germany or France we should contribute MUCH less.


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 19/12/2011 : 10:22
Not sure we should contribute anything at all, even to the IMF

The markets seem to be assuming that the Euro is bust, and thus a one way bet unless the Eurozone actually becomes a Greater Germany. Even then the problems are around surrendered sovereignty, and the French are not renowned for being quiet.

Plus ca change


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 20/12/2011 : 05:33
It looks as though the Condems share our misgivings, they have refused to contribute to the bail-out fund via the IMF.

One thing that is often forgotten about IMF money is that it is a loan, has to be repaid and always carries onerous conditions. In the case of a country like Greece it will be enforced increases in austerity cuts to public services, cutting of benefits and pensions and the forced privatisation of large chunks of the infrastructure. This opens the doors to predatory capital funds who buy up assets for a song and support the IMF principles because it gives them opportunities. There has been criticism of this aspect of IMF operations for many years. (See Naomi Klein: 'The Shock Doctrine') 'Crisis management' as a route to generating investment opportunities has been a tool used by large capital for over 100 years. Look up the activitoes of the United Fruit Company in Central America for early examples. Sometimes described as Economic Imperialism, it is a weapon of economic war and I am afraid that's what we are looking at, a fight for survival.The losers will be the poor and enlightened programmes to combat climate change, global pollution etc.

Worth reflecting on the fact that these measures have been taken voluntarily in the UK and this might explain our low borrowing rate despite our bad economic state. We have demonstrated which side we are on.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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handlamp
Senior Member


1100 Posts
Posted - 20/12/2011 : 15:41
As I've repeatedly said we should be out of the EU FULL STOP. We can find plenty of reliable trading partners in the old Commonwealth countries


TedGo to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2011 : 04:37
I tend to agree nowadays Ted even though I have always supported the idea of closer ties with Europe to minimise the chances of another war.

I see Redwood raised his head over the parapet and made statements about increasing trade with non EU countries.  Dangerous man in my opinion, not much doubt which side of the debate he is on. Mind you, I have no time for the scaremongers who equate distance from EU as being the equivalent of stopping all trade. This is nonsense, it will not lead to widespread job losses. The trade depends on the market for the goods, not the existence of the EU. This is a scare campaign.

I still say the only sensible course is to do what we are doing, hang back and wait until the position of the Euro and the EU become clearer. The market believes that seismic changes are coming. If rating agencies follow recent pattern expect further announcements either tomorrow or Friday.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2011 : 10:48
Not sure about the "hang back" approach. I might suggest that the UK is a spectator, not out of choice, and despite some of the suggestions being made it is simply being seen as carping from the sidelines.

The Euro is bust, the markets know this. The choice is "Greater Germany" or "A Common Market", at the moment there is no "3rd way" because the governments have already spent all the money of the next generation and the money lender wants their pound of flesh.


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Whyperion
Regular Member


122 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2011 : 13:18
Increase trade with former Commonwealth countries ?  Unlikely they would want us after all these years , Australia and NZ have forged strong links with Japan and rest of the far east industrialised contries and UK companies long had to establish local manufacturing plants out there anyway , sending out items either part finished for local completion or living off royalty / licencing income, much the same for South Africa, which leaves only Canada whom probably import most of their volume stuff from China.

Our original terms of membership of EU were all wrong from a social and economic viewpoint , we should have arranged for all Commonwealth countries to have had had equal trade access into EU and maintained much of our own Fishing and Agricultural policies, and I am none too fond of the EU's state support of industry policies,  but its generally  too late to go back now, so we do need to look forward to a re-arranged EU with some closer aligned economic policies and probably the national government's status reduced to more of the current UK devolved administrations.


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handlamp
Senior Member


1100 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2011 : 16:09
Let's give it a try and see - I think you'll find there is far more loyalty to us, and our way of life, in the Commonwealth, and I include India, than you seem to think. Certainly for trade, the EU needs us far more than we need them. Let's also make a real affort to get back to manufacturing instead of the reliance on service industries.


TedGo to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 22/12/2011 : 04:27
We need more export markets but the real driver is domestic consumption. The only way to raise that is to make goods affordable. That's the trick the ECB is doing now by pouring phantom money as free loans into the EU economy. Watch the Euro sink in value. Adding value by manufacturing is the only way real money is made.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 22/12/2011 : 10:26
I'm not sure that "consumption" on its own is a solver of the issues.

A policy which continues to suck in imports does nothing to counterbalance the outward flow of money.

Probably need to take a good long lokk at Agriculture and invest in home produce.

Then see if we can encourage manufcaturers to locate here, even if they are only screw driver operations to at least get a little bit of "made in UK" on them.

Ultimately it is only the domicilling of businesses in the UK which will both increase job availability, but also help to make inroads into the deficit in public spending and ensure that the tax burden isn't increased any further to pay back the profligacy


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