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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted -  28/04/2011  :  07:37
Political comment is a high risk activity on the site these days so I thought I'd try again to give those who are interested in politics a safe haven!


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk
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Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 09:54
That is what I meant about it being the wrong time to strike - we are teetering on the edge. The action of the reserve banks seems to have been planned in secret and is a last ditch measure. The financial markets have bounced upwards but, as someone on the Today programme said this morning, "The markets are a mystery to me these days". He's right - they seem to be doing the opposite of what you'd expect, a system out of balance, out of control. Turbulent times ahead!


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 12:11
Well according to reports today "we" have lost £30.6 billion so far on the banks that was nationalised. That is just what we have paid out, not the indemnities that were provided that may not have yet been taken back. Seems a large enough number, plus interest, to be concerned about to me. Wouldn't plug the deficit on it's own, but it might make an enormous hole in it for this year.

I refute the privatisation issue, it is the wholesale downsizing of tax credits by Brown for investment that has restricted "growth" in the energy sector. The fact that we had a dash for gas (50% is now non-UK) because it was the cheapest to build. Government are there to set the frameworks to allow businesses to operate. Brown allowed tax credits on borrowings, and dropped capital gains rates whilst skying Corporation tax above our competitors. Which way do you think business whould operate in that regime, like the banks they are not altruistic? Plus the banks probably wouldn't have lent the money to those who couldn't provide the returns.

Maybe if the tax systems had been better, the UK would not have off shored so much industrial ability.


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 12:18


quote:
Tizer wrote:
That is what I meant about it being the wrong time to strike - we are teetering on the edge. The action of the reserve banks seems to have been planned in secret and is a last ditch measure.


I agree with the first bit, nothing was gained and the papers seem to be filled with news stories about bumper takings at the shops. 0.5% GDP loss, however, could come back to haunt those public sector unions.

The first section of the second bit is obviously true, because without secrecy the markets would have already moved. The last bit, however, I do not believe is last ditch. There are reports that China joined in too, and with such a concerted action it means that the central banks have woken up to the fact that despite the fact that Gordon saved the world they have to do something to bypass the zombies.

Anyone who believes this money will flow quickley, and ease the credit crunch in the short term is living in cloud cuckoo land. The problem is the banks and what the G20 did to them in London. It needs another look, and it wouldn't surprise me if another bank was sent to the wall.


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 14:50
The fact that the BoE Governor has now spoken, makes the tactic all the more clear.

If the speculators don't believe that the politicians actually have the means to stitch up the eurozone, then everyone else must opt for damage limitation, because the eurozone will not survive the onslaught.

Euroland meetings are usually about softening a crisis, and now they have been warned of the financial tsunami coming their way. Is Frau Merkel capable of saving all that bacon?


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 14:55
Local Politics and a little light relief?

The General Purposes Committee considered arrangements for this year on the 5th

October 2011. The relevant minute was:

11/69 Christmas Trees

It was reported that the trees would be installed on Saturday 5th and Sunday 6th

November. Trees would be dressed during the week prior. Volunteers were required for

both activities. Permission had not yet been granted for the additional bracket at the former

chemists.Resolved: That the report be noted, and that authority be delegated to the Town Clerk to

organise the event and incur expenditure.

Following that meeting a further request was made by the owner of Whichcrafts via the GP

Committee chairman for brackets etc to be installed at her premises. Given that the

Council had sufficient brackets, lights & trees, the Town Clerk agreed that, provided there

was no further cost to the Council for installation, that the brackets etc could be used. This

information was passed to Whichcrafts by the GP committee chairman, together with an

introduction to the contractor who was working on installations for the Council.

On the 17th November 2011 the owner of Whichcrafts made a complaint to the Town

Clerk.

The main points of the complaint are:

1. That the contractor that the Council introduced was expensive and has thus far failed to

give her an invoice for the work undertaken or a certificate of compliance.

2. That Whichcrafts is the only establishment in Barnoldswick which has paid for the

installation of brackets.

FYI, the Chairman is Cllr Whipp, The Clerk is Richard Nelson, and the owner of Whichcrafts openly sported her support for the Conservatives at the last elections.

Will be interesting to see if the owner of Whichcrafts turns up at the meeting, and whether Cllr Whipp manages to control himself at this meeting.



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Whyperion
Regular Member


122 Posts
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 23:54
There you go then , should have got a public servant of Pendle Council to fix up the bracket rather than this private sector person. Initial cost would have been cheaper but you have to carry on paying him a pension once he is retired.


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Whyperion
Regular Member


122 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 00:13
reports today "we" have lost £30.6 billion  on the banks- I cannot find any web report to this effect , but putting 30.6 billion into a search engine brings up some interesting links.


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Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 05:16
Well, it looks as though Mervyn was reading my early morning post, either that or I was right. A little figure slipped out yesteday. Up to now the Euro liability of the UK banks has been quoted as £13billion, referring to mediterranean bonds only. Someone has done the sums for UK banks exposure to EU bonds as a whole and it's a staggering £300billion. Mervyn also spelled out what the real problem in the EU is, it's not liquidity it's solvency. Given worst case (and this is looking increasingly probable) the EU hasn't enough money to cover the deficit. There were several coded messages in the statement, the most clear was that he blames the heads of the EU countries for not getting their fiscal act together quick enough.

Meanwhile the EU finance ministers have yet another meeting and are talking about a route out of the mess by altering the treaties and making all the members of the Eurozone delegate fiscal powers to the centre. This will take too long and it's doubtful whether  agreement will be reached. Sarcozy says the EU computer needs a reboot with a new system. He is right but that was always the problem.  It is too late. Everyone looks to the German based ECB for a miracle but they haven't enough funds and will the German electors allow it?

The bottom line is that the only thing that can prevent a Eurozone collapse is the biggest capital injection ever made from the combined central banks. What governs whether this happens is the balance of fear. Which is worse, the collapse of the Euro and the effect on global trade or moving much of the worlds disaster funding into Europe?

I note that more and more people are using the 'train wreck' as a metaphor. You heard it here first! Time has run out, the wreck may be closer than we thought.


Stanley Challenger Graham




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stanley at barnoldswick.freeserve.co.uk Go to Top of Page
Stanley
Local Historian & Old Fart


36804 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 07:45
I'm listening to the news and I/m afraid I'm getting a sinking feeling. I've said repeatedly that the Eoro problems are a symptom and not the disease. There is a deeper global malaise which is the refusal of politicians to face up to the fact that we have all been misled by the financial system and spent beyond our means. In the system's interest of course to promote debt and interest income.

If anyone had asked me twelve months ago what was, in the worst case, the most likely genesis of global catastrophe I would have gone for an environmental issue like global warming or pollution of the planet. This was far enough into the future as to be supportable.

I begin to wonder now if what we are looking at here is a more immediate problem, the catastrophic failure of the global financial system. Every indication is that we are approaching a crunch point in history which will make minor events like the South Sea Bubble look like a minor irritation. We need a new shorthand term for this. Are we looking at the Capitalism Bubble? Is it about to burst? Was Marx right? I don't know and I take no joy in suggesting it but we are in for an interesting time.

A very eminent commentator said this maorning that in fifty year's experience he had never seen such an apocalyptic report fromthe Bank of England. Lord Myers has just been on and says he is looking for a safe place to put his money but refused to specify where this is. Could be that my sack of oatmeal and the dried peas are as good a place as any. Oh, and I have a healthy stock of  pipe tobacco and good malt whisky!

Am thinking of changing my name to Jeremiah...... (LINK)


Stanley Challenger Graham




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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 10:18
Telegraph and FT, your googlefu is weak Wink

quote:
Whyperion wrote:
reports today "we" have lost £30.6 billion  on the banks- I cannot find any web report to this effect , but putting 30.6 billion into a search engine brings up some interesting links.

and there are rumours that the banks are looking at more share issues which would obviously dilute HM Treasury cache (unless 'we' bought more) and reduce the prices again

Edited by - Tardis on 02/12/2011 10:20:48


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belle
VIP Member


6502 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 10:20
Something else is striking me in all this and it's a phenomenon that has begun to change everything that went before it.  For the last six months I have listened to the news bulletins with increasing frustration ..the powers that be keep announcing how serious this is getting as though the rest of us haven't realised but actually most of the people on the shop floor knew months..even years ago..so when these bulletins are announced one can only come to one of two conclusions.. either those on the shop floor have a better grasp of what's going on than those in the boardroom...or the bosses think we are all as thick as two short planks and they have to drip feed us difficult news as though we were babies.
It isn't only in govermental life that those in charge are seeming to be less clued up than those they are trying to lead..it is happening with regard to all the old established higher orders.. doctors, teachers, priests once looked up to as the benign experts are nowadays no more equipped to explain things than the people they are trying to explain them to.


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Tardis
Regular Member


453 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 10:25
Belle, I think what you are seeing now is the actual inability of those 'in power' to be able to pull any levers to have any effect.

After all, if you actually read Osbourne's statement the only decreases he can give are those that were already put there by Brown and Darling, and it is sometime since the election now and their last budget.


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catgate
Senior Member


1764 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 10:59
Belle. You must remember the story of the emperor's new clothes.

Well.... the part of the emperor is being played by our "leaders", the part of the tailor is being played by a corrupt bunch of  sticky fingered "money changers" (who do not know what "money" really represents because they have never come face to face with it and would not recognise it if they did), and we are all the crowd, who are expected to look on in admiration. Up until the last couple of years or so many people actually belived there was a suit of clothes......some idiots still do, some hope there might be and others bury their heads in the sand and whistle through the whole of the afternoon,


Every silver lining has a cloud.


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Tizer
VIP Member


5150 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 11:18
Belle (everyone is rushing to reply to Belle, so I'll join in!) - another aspect of what you describe is that the government has been saying we were no longer in recession and this gave the impresssion we were on the up. But no, they are sticking to a narrow technical definition of recession. We all know we've been in recession for years now and it's getting worse not better - and has to get worse still before we can escape. And Catgate, I guess the Emperor would tell you that he `technically' has new clothes, defined according to a group of advisors, otherwise known as the sticky-fingered moneychangers.


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Whyperion
Regular Member


122 Posts
Posted - 02/12/2011 : 22:16
One real loss reported today ( Evening Standard in London ) Or Guardian link if you prefer <http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/02/rbs-heineken-pub-estate-sale?newsfeed=true .> RBS has sold its ownership of public houses to Heineken 912 units for £412m. The ES reported that this was £28m less than RBS had paid for the pubs in the first place , in two tranches of acquistions from Scottish and Newcastle ( whom Heineken fairly recently bought ). However Guardian article notes that 10% of the number of pubs orginally acquired by RBS have already been disposed elsewhere ( for what value unreported ) and presumably over the time RBS owned the pubs , including when owned by taxpayer , some rental income would have been recieved , I would guess around £24m per annum (   works out a 5% return and £500/week per site roughly on average which seems reasonable amount overall  ) 5% is also a rough cost of funds to RBS so sale to Heineken for cash now is as broad as is long but helps pay back presumably to UK Treasury a little bit of the borrowings .

Edited by - Whyperion on 02/12/2011 22:20:59


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